Why the NDIS Reform Is Failing Autistic Children: The Truth Behind the 2026 Cuts
Why the NDIS Reform Is Failing Autistic Children: The Truth Behind the 2026 Cuts
The 2026 NDIS reforms move autistic children aged 8 and under with low to moderate support needs out of the NDIS and into a new program called Thriving Kids. The plan aims to cut participant numbers from 760,000 to 600,000 by 2030. Parliamentary testimony shows advocates and parents worry the new supports are not ready, and some children could lose care during a critical stage of development.
What the 2026 NDIS Reforms Actually Change
Two changes sit at the center of this reform. The first is a new program called Thriving Kids. The second is a bill in federal parliament that gives the government legal room to change who qualifies for the NDIS and how.
The Thriving Kids Program, Explained
Thriving Kids is a $4 billion initiative, funded jointly by the federal and state governments, aimed at children aged 8 and under with developmental delay or autism who have low to moderate support needs. The federal government is putting in $2 billion, and at least $1.4 billion of that goes straight to the states to run local services. State rollout starts October 1, 2026, and the program is expected to run at full scale from January 1, 2028.
The idea behind Thriving Kids is early, local support delivered through GPs, schools, and community services instead of individual NDIS plans. Children with higher support needs stay on the NDIS. Children below that threshold move to Thriving Kids once it is running in their area.
The NDIS Amendment Bill and What It Enables
The government has introduced the NDIS Amendment (Securing the NDIS for Future Generations) Bill 2026. This bill is the legal mechanism behind the reform. It gives the government power to change eligibility criteria and access arrangements, something that currently requires an amendment to the National Disability Insurance Scheme Act 2013. Without this bill passing, the government cannot legally shift children off the NDIS the way Thriving Kids requires.
The government has said some changes will start soon after the bill passes, while others will roll out over a longer period with more consultation. A full timeline sits on the Department of Health, Disability and Ageing website, and it is worth checking directly since dates keep moving as the legislation progresses.
Why the Government Says This Is Necessary
The Cost Pressure Behind the Reform
The government's stated reason for the reform is financial sustainability. In August 2025, the government said it wanted to slow NDIS growth to 5 to 6 percent a year. In April 2026, NDIS Minister Mark Butler went further, announcing a plan to cut total NDIS participants from around 760,000 down to 600,000 by 2030, with some of that reduction coming from children moved to Thriving Kids.
Autism is central to this because of scale. Children with autism make up the largest single disability group on the NDIS, and that group has grown far beyond what the scheme's original 2011 funding model expected. A 2025 study from the Australian National University, led by researchers Maathumai Ranjan and Robert Breunig, found that the introduction of individualized NDIS funding is linked to a 32 percent rise in reported autism prevalence and accounts for close to half of new diagnoses since the scheme began. That finding is one reason the government points to autism specifically when it talks about controlling cost growth, and it is the kind of number that rarely makes it into general coverage of the reform.
Where the Reform Is Falling Short for Autistic Children
A Rollout Timeline Ahead of the Support Network
The core problem raised again and again in submissions and testimony is sequencing. Thriving Kids state services begin in October 2026, but the program is not expected to be at scale until January 2028. Meanwhile, eligibility changes tied to the eligibility criteria for children already on the NDIS are set to apply before January 1, 2028 as well. That leaves a window where the replacement system is still being built while children are already being assessed against it.
Disability advocacy group Amaze has tracked this gap closely and is pushing for a specific commitment: no child should be removed from the NDIS, and no access criteria should change, until Thriving Kids is fully rolled out, tested, and proven to actually meet children's needs. As of mid-2026, that commitment has not been locked in.
The Risk of a Two-Tier System
At a parliamentary inquiry into Thriving Kids, chaired by Labor MP Mike Freelander, disability organizations from across Australia raised concerns about workforce capacity and the risk of splitting support into two unequal tiers. Submissions described current NDIS access assessments as slow and invasive, and warned the new system could repeat the same problems while adding a second, less funded track for children judged to have milder needs.
Independent support coordinator Ange McArthur, who has two autistic sons, told the inquiry that excluding autism from the NDIS in this way amounts to discrimination against people based on disability type rather than actual need. Jenny Karavolos, chief executive of the Disability Advocacy and Complaints Service South Australia, raised a related concern: children assessed as mild to moderate today do not always stay that way, and a system built around a fixed threshold risks missing kids whose needs change.
Reassessment and What It Means for Existing Plans
Children aged 8 and under already on the NDIS with developmental delay or autism at low to moderate support needs will be reassessed under the eligibility rules in place before January 1, 2028. In plain terms, this means a child currently receiving individualized NDIS funding is not guaranteed to keep it. Their case gets reviewed again under criteria that are still being finalized, and the outcome determines whether they stay on the NDIS or move to Thriving Kids once it exists in their area.
Parents describe this uncertainty as one of the hardest parts of the reform. In a University of New South Wales survey of parents and carers, families said they worried a shift out of the NDIS could mean losing supports right at a developmental stage when early intervention matters most.
What Parents and Advocates Are Saying
Testimony From the Parliamentary Inquiry
The clearest signal that this reform is not landing well with the people it affects came directly from the 2026 parliamentary inquiry into Thriving Kids. Advocacy groups told the committee that Thriving Kids needs to complement the NDIS, not replace or reduce it, and that the government should not lock in access changes until the new program has proven it works. Disability advocate Anthia Jacobson raised a separate point about design: she has said a genuinely family-centered system needs real parental involvement in decisions about funding and support, not a structure handed down without that input.
Regional and First Nations families face an added layer of risk. Submissions to the inquiry and the UNSW survey both flagged that regional and remote areas, along with First Nations, multicultural, and LGBTIQA+ families, already deal with thinner service access, longer waitlists, and higher travel costs. A new mainstream-delivery model built around local GPs and schools does not automatically fix that gap, and several submissions asked the government to address it directly before rollout.
What the Research Says About Autism and the NDIS
The ANU research cited earlier matters here because it reframes the debate. If a large share of the growth in autism diagnoses is tied to how NDIS funding is structured, then removing autistic children from that funding model is not a neutral administrative change. It is a change that touches the exact mechanism the research links to increased diagnosis and access to support in the first place. Advocates use this point to argue that the reform is treating a symptom of NDIS design, cost growth, without fully accounting for what removing that design might do to diagnosis and access going forward.
What This Means for Families Right Now
If your child is 8 or under and currently receiving NDIS support for autism or developmental delay, three things are worth tracking over the next year.
First, watch for confirmed eligibility criteria. As of mid-2026, the exact rules for reassessment are still being developed with input from the disability sector, so nothing is locked in yet.
Second, check when Thriving Kids launches in your state. Services start rolling out from October 2026, but timing and service availability differ by state and territory.
Third, keep records. Advocacy groups recommend documenting your child's current supports, diagnoses, and progress now, since that record becomes useful if a reassessment happens later.
The Department of Health, Disability and Ageing publishes a reform timeline directly on its website, and the National Disability Insurance Agency has said it will notify participants and providers before any changes affecting them take effect.
What Genuine Reform Would Look Like
Advocates are not asking the government to abandon cost control. Most submissions to the inquiry accept that the NDIS needs a sustainable growth rate. What they are asking for is sequencing that protects children while the new system is built.
Three commitments come up repeatedly across advocacy submissions:
- No child should be removed from the NDIS, and no eligibility criteria should change, until Thriving Kids is fully operational and proven to work in that area
- Eligibility criteria should be developed with genuine input from autistic people, families, and the wider disability community, not set by government alone
- Thriving Kids needs enforceable workforce and service standards in regional, remote, First Nations, and multicultural communities before it replaces anything
None of these three points have been fully secured as policy at the time of writing. That gap, between what the reform promises and what has actually been locked in, is the center of why so many parents and advocates call the current plan a work in progress rather than a fix.
FAQ
What is Thriving Kids and how is it different from the NDIS?
Thriving Kids is a new government program for children aged 8 and under with developmental delay or autism at low to moderate support needs. Unlike the NDIS, it does not use individualized funding plans. Instead, it delivers support through local services like GPs, schools, and community programs, funded through the states rather than paid directly to families.
Will my autistic child be removed from the NDIS in 2026?
Not automatically. Children already on the NDIS will be reassessed under eligibility criteria that are still being finalized. Children with higher or more permanent support needs remain eligible for the NDIS. Reassessments tied to this reform are expected before January 1, 2028, not immediately in 2026.
Why is the government reducing NDIS participant numbers?
The government has said it wants to slow NDIS cost growth to 5 to 6 percent a year and plans to reduce total participants from about 760,000 to 600,000 by 2030. Autism is a major factor because it is the largest disability group on the scheme, and diagnosis rates have grown well beyond the scheme's original funding projections.
What happens if Thriving Kids is not ready in my area?
This is the exact risk advocacy groups have raised with the government. As of mid-2026, no public commitment guarantees NDIS eligibility stays unchanged until Thriving Kids is fully running everywhere. Families in areas where the program has not launched should track state-by-state rollout updates closely.
Can a child move back onto the NDIS if Thriving Kids does not work?
The government has not published a clear, enforceable pathway back onto the NDIS for a child whose needs turn out to be higher than Thriving Kids can support. This is one of the specific gaps advocacy organizations are pushing the government to close before the program scales up nationally.
Sources: Australian Government Department of Health, Disability and Ageing; NDIS Amendment (Securing the NDIS for Future Generations) Bill 2026; People with Disability Australia; Amaze; parliamentary inquiry coverage via AAP; University of New South Wales; Ranjan and Breunig, Australian National University (2025). Last updated: July 2026. Next review: September 2026, or sooner if the eligibility criteria or bill status changes.
